This article is general market research for education and information. PropertyMaths is built by GetPost Labs Pty Ltd, a technology company. It is not a valuation, a price forecast, or financial, investment, tax, legal or real estate advice, and nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell, hold or refinance a property.
Published figures and our own observations use different dates, areas, property types and methods, and may be revised. Listing counts, asking prices and reported sales do not show mortgage stress, forced selling or what a particular home would sell for. Look at recent sales of comparable homes and get independent professional advice before making decisions.
| Published | |
| Data as at | 31 October 2026 |
| Values and sales | September 2026 (Cotality, released 1 October 2026) |
| Listings | September 2026 (SQM Research, released 2 October 2026) |
| Rental vacancy | September 2026 (SQM Research, 13 October; Cotality, 1 October 2026) |
| Inflation | September 2026 monthly CPI (ABS, released 28 October 2026) |
| Local observations | Selected postcodes and 56 suburbs, 31 October 2026 |
| Next data to watch | Cotality October home values (2 November 2026) · RBA rate decision (3 November 2026) |
| Prepared by | PropertyMaths research, GetPost Labs Pty Ltd |
Figures are reported for the period shown. When newer data is released, we add it as a dated update rather than changing the original figures.
Brisbane at a glance
| Indicator | Latest reading | What it tells us |
|---|---|---|
| Brisbane dwelling values, September | −1.5% | The largest monthly fall of any capital city that month (Cotality). |
| From the 2026 peak | −5.4% | Values are below their May 2026 peak (Cotality). |
| Over 12 months to September | +5.9% | Values are still higher than a year earlier, despite the recent fall (Cotality). |
| Home sales, three months to September | −27.2% year on year | The sharpest drop in sales of any capital (Cotality estimate). |
| Homes advertised for sale, September | 21,153, +43.5% year on year | The strongest annual rise of any capital; up 3.8% in the month (SQM Research). |
| Older listings (180+ days), September | +26.8% year on year | Up 16.0% in the month: more homes are sitting unsold (SQM Research). |
| Asking prices, September | −2.1% in the month | Combined house and unit asking prices; the largest monthly fall of any capital (SQM Research). |
| Rental vacancy, September | 0.9% (SQM) · 2.1% (Cotality) | Two providers, two methods. Both point to a rental market tighter than the sales market. |
| RBA cash rate | 4.60% | Raised by 0.25 percentage points on 29 September 2026. |
| Inflation, 12 months to September 2026 | 4.3% Australia · 4.4% Brisbane | Monthly Consumer Price Index, released by the ABS on 28 October 2026. |
Fewer sales and more homes for sale are signs of a slower sales market. They do not mean every suburb is falling at the same rate, or that homes for sale are distressed sales.
1. What changed in Brisbane's market?
Fewer sales, more choice for buyers
Cotality reported that Brisbane dwelling values fell 1.5% in September and were 5.4% below their May 2026 peak, though still 5.9% higher than a year earlier. It estimated that home sales over the three months to September were 27.2% lower than a year before. When fewer homes sell, the number left on the market builds up even if no more owners decide to sell.
SQM Research counted 21,153 homes advertised for sale in Brisbane in September, 43.5% more than in September 2025 and the strongest annual rise of any capital. Homes listed for one to six months almost doubled over the year, and listings older than 180 days rose 26.8%. Those are signs that homes are taking longer to sell. Listing counts alone cannot tell us why any particular owner is selling.
Interest rates and inflation are part of the picture
On 29 September the Reserve Bank raised the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.60%. The ABS then reported inflation of 4.3% nationally and 4.4% in Brisbane for the 12 months to September 2026. Higher rates and living costs reduce how much buyers can borrow and spend. They do not explain every suburb's results on their own: supply, location, the type of home and buyer preferences matter too.
- Repayments rise. Lenders usually pass a cash-rate rise on to variable mortgage rates within weeks.
- Borrowing power falls. Banks test whether a borrower can afford repayments at a higher rate, so the maximum loan shrinks.
- Fewer buyers, lower bids. With less to spend, some buyers wait and others offer less. Sales slow first; prices usually adjust later.
Illustration: a $600,000 loan over 30 years
| Monthly repayment at 6.32% | $3,722 |
| Monthly repayment at 6.57% (after a 0.25 percentage point rise) | $3,820 |
| Extra each month | $98 |
Principal and interest, using the same example rates as our Greenbank cost analysis. Actual rates and repayments depend on the lender and loan.
The rental market looks different
SQM Research put Brisbane's September rental vacancy rate at 0.9%, and reported house rents up 8.1% over the year. Cotality put it at 2.1% using a different method. The two rates should not be compared with each other, but both describe a rental market that is tighter than the sales market. A suburb can have more homes for sale and still strong demand from renters, so more sale listings do not mean rents must fall.
2. Which Brisbane areas deserve a closer look?
We reviewed a selection of Brisbane-area postcodes and 56 suburbs, looking at the direction of listing counts, how long homes had been listed, asking prices, rental conditions and recent reported sales. The areas below stood out. They are areas to examine, not a ranking of distressed suburbs.
| Area | What stood out | Why the detail matters |
|---|---|---|
| New-estate corridors: Greenbank, Park Ridge, Logan Reserve, Yarrabilba, Flagstone | A high number of homes advertised compared with recently reported sales. | New house-and-land packages, vacant blocks and established homes can appear in the same counts, but they are different products. |
| Ipswich growth areas: Ripley, Deebing Heights | A high ratio of homes advertised to recently reported sales. | New estate stages can add many listings at once and change the mix of what is advertised. |
| Moreton Bay growth areas: Morayfield and nearby | A large volume of homes advertised. | A big suburb will have a big listing count simply because it is big; ratios matter more than totals. |
| Rochedale compared with Rochedale South | Much more stock relative to sales in Rochedale than in Rochedale South. | Neighbouring suburbs can behave differently: Rochedale has a large new estate, Rochedale South is established. |
| Middle-ring and bayside postcodes: parts of Clontarf and Margate, Redcliffe and Newport, Fitzgibbon and Taigum, Everton Park and Mitchelton, Yeronga, Chermside | October median asking prices for houses below their July–September average. | A median can fall because cheaper homes were listed, not because sellers cut prices or homes sold for less. |
This supports looking more closely at these markets. It does not show that every street, estate or home in them is oversupplied, overpriced or will fall in value. Some nearby suburbs showed much less stock relative to sales, including North Lakes, Springfield Lakes and Rochedale South.
3. How to read the numbers
A 103% rise in listings means a little more than double, not a price rise
If the number of homes advertised for sale rises by 103%, it has a little more than doubled. For example, 100 listings rising to 203 is an increase of 103 listings, which is 103% of the original 100. That is a change in the number of advertisements, not in property values.
| Listings last year | Listings this year | Change | In words |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 150 | +50% | One and a half times as many |
| 100 | 200 | +100% | Twice as many |
| 100 | 203 | +103% | A little more than twice as many |
| 100 | 75 | −25% | Three quarters as many |
Months of stock is an indicator, not a selling-time forecast
Illustration only, not real suburb data: 200 homes are advertised and 40 sold over the last three months.
| Average sales per month: 40 ÷ 3 | 13.3 |
| Months of stock: 200 ÷ 13.3 | 15 months |
The calculation assumes sales continue at the same pace and no new homes are listed. Real markets do not work that neatly: new listings arrive, some are withdrawn, sales are reported late, and the homes for sale may not be the same kind as the homes that sold. Fifteen months of stock does not mean any one owner will take fifteen months to sell.
Asking prices are not sold prices
A median asking price measures what sellers advertise. When it falls, either some sellers lowered their prices, or the mix of homes on offer changed, or both. Recent sold prices for similar homes, matched on size, land, age, condition and location, are a better guide to what buyers are paying.
Older listings describe what has not sold
The share of homes listed for months describes the stock still on the market. A rise fits with slower sales, but it is a different measure from the median days on market for homes that did sell.
- Listings (homes advertised for sale)
- The number of properties advertised for sale at a point in time. Providers count them differently: some remove duplicates across websites, some include vacant land, and each uses its own boundary for a city. Compare a provider’s figures with its own earlier figures, not with another provider’s.
- New listings
- Properties first advertised during the period, usually the last 30 days. A rise in new listings means more owners are choosing to sell; total listings can still grow without it if fewer homes are selling.
- Older or aged listings
- Properties that have been advertised for a long time without selling. SQM Research counts listings older than 180 days. A growing share of older listings points to slower sales, but it is not the same as the time taken by homes that did sell.
- Year on year (for example, +43.5%)
- The change compared with the same month a year earlier. It avoids comparing spring with winter, when more homes are always listed. +50% means one and a half times as many; +100% means twice as many. A rise in the number of listings is not a rise in prices.
- Percentage points
- The plain difference between two percentages. A cash rate moving from 4.35% to 4.60% is a rise of 0.25 percentage points (often written as 25 basis points), even though 4.60 is about 5.7% higher than 4.35.
- Months of stock
- Homes for sale divided by the average number sold each month recently. It shows how long the current stock would last at the current pace if no new homes were listed. It is an indicator for an area, not a forecast of how long any one home will take to sell, and providers use different thresholds for a balanced market.
- Asking price and sold price
- The asking price is what the seller advertises; the sold price is what a buyer actually agreed to pay. In a slowing market the gap can widen. Recent sold prices of similar homes nearby are the better guide to value.
- Median
- The middle value when prices are lined up from lowest to highest. A median can move because different homes are on the market this month, not because any home changed price. That is why a suburb median can jump when a few expensive homes are listed.
- Sales volume
- The number of homes sold in a period. Falling volumes usually come before falling prices: buyers hold back first, and sellers adjust later. Recent months are often revised up because some sales are reported late.
- Home value index
- A measure of how values of the same kinds of homes change over time, adjusted for the mix of homes sold. Cotality’s Home Value Index and PropTrack’s Home Price Index use different methods, so their monthly figures can differ.
- Rental vacancy rate
- The share of rental homes that are empty and available. Around 3% is often treated as balanced; below 1% means renters have very few choices. Providers measure it differently, so one provider’s rate should not be compared with another’s.
- Cash rate
- The interest rate the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets for overnight loans between banks. Lenders usually pass changes on to variable mortgage rates, which changes repayments and how much people can borrow.
- Inflation (CPI)
- How much the prices of everyday goods and services have risen, measured by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) as the Consumer Price Index. The ABS now publishes a monthly CPI; the older quarterly series is a different measure, so a monthly figure and a quarterly figure should not be compared directly.
- Postcode and suburb
- A postcode often covers several suburbs, and a suburb can cross postcodes. A trend for a postcode may come mostly from one suburb within it, so it should not be applied to every suburb or street it covers.
4. How to look at your own suburb
A city-wide headline says little about one street. These steps use free, public information to build a clearer local picture. They are a starting point for your own research, not a valuation.
- Count comparable homes for sale. Filter a property website to your suburb and to homes like yours (bedrooms, land size, house or unit). Note the count and check again each month.
- Look at recent sold prices, not asking prices. Find three to five comparable homes sold in the last three to six months, and note the date and price of each.
- Watch how long homes stay listed. Note how many comparable listings have been on the market for more than two or three months.
- Check for new supply nearby. New estate stages and townhouse projects add homes that compete for the same buyers.
- Look at rents separately. The RTA publishes median rents by postcode each quarter; a strong rental market and a slow sales market can exist at the same time.
- Get a professional view before acting. A licensed agent's appraisal or a valuer's report uses sales data you cannot see on public websites.
5. What to watch next
The useful question is not whether a suburb appears on a list, but whether several indicators are moving together for comparable homes: the number for sale, recent sold prices, how long homes stay listed, the number of sales, and new supply coming into the same area.
Cotality's October home values are due on 2 November 2026 and the RBA's next rate decision is on 3 November 2026. We will add any update to this page as a dated note. This article records the evidence at the end of October 2026; it does not forecast where prices will be in 2027.
How we compiled this article
- City figures come from Cotality's Home Value Index released on 1 October 2026, SQM Research's September listings and vacancy releases, the RBA's 29 September decision and the ABS September 2026 CPI.
- Local observations come from our own review of postcode listing, vacancy and asking-price indicators from September 2025 to September 2026, and a snapshot of 56 suburbs on 31 October 2026. House asking prices compare weekly observations to 23 October with the July–September 2026 average. This is a selected sample, not a complete survey of Greater Brisbane.
- No suburb ranking. A single score can mix unlike measures and look more precise than it is, so we explain the individual measures instead of naming a “worst” suburb.
Limits
- Property website counts can include vacant land and different types of homes together.
- Sales are often reported late, so the most recent months are undercounted.
- Postcodes contain several suburbs, and asking-price medians are not matched sale prices.
- Providers differ in coverage and method; their figures are shown separately, not combined.
Sources and further reading
- Cotality: Australian housing values down for sixth straight month in September (1 October 2026)
- Cotality: Home Value Index, October 2026 edition (September data)
- SQM Research: Total property listings, September 2026 (2 October 2026)
- SQM Research: National vacancy rates, September 2026 (13 October 2026)
- Reserve Bank of Australia: monetary policy decision (29 September 2026)
- Australian Bureau of Statistics: Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (released 28 October 2026)
- Residential Tenancies Authority (Queensland): median rents quarterly data (further reading)
PropertyMaths is independent of Cotality, SQM Research, the ABS, the RBA, the RTA and realestate.com.au. Listing them as sources does not mean they endorse, partner with or have reviewed this article. Their material remains the property of its owners.
Everything on this page is for educational and informational purposes only. Costs, prices, interest rates, rules and government schemes change over time, and the figures shown are approximate examples that may already be out of date. Nothing here is financial, tax, legal, building or professional advice, a recommendation or a quote. Do your own research, get written quotes and seek advice from qualified professionals before making any decision.
PropertyMaths is being built by GetPost Labs Pty Ltd, a technology company. We are not financial, tax, legal or property advisers. The information here is our own research, shared to show what a product for property owners and investors could do.